What if the Labour Party wins the coming General Election with a huge majority?

March 19th, 2024 by Roger Darlington

Do you remember the General Election of December 2019? Do you really remember it? The Conservative Party, then led by Boris Johnson, won a landslide victory with a majority of 80 seats, a net gain of 48, on 43.6% of the popular vote, the highest percentage for any party since the General Election of 1979.  

For the Labour Party, then led by Jeremy Corbyn, the result was an absolute disaster. It was the fourth consecutive general election defeat for the Labour Party. In the worst result for the party in 84 years, despite a better vote share than other losses as in 1931, 1983, 1987, and 2010, Labour only won 202 seats, which was the lowest number since 1935 and a loss of 60 compared to the previous election.

At that time, it seemed unthinkable that the Labour Party could secure a Parliamentary majority in one election cycle. There was much talk of pre- or post-election pacts with the Liberal Democrats or the Scottish National Party to obtain a. working majority for a possible Labour Government. An agreement with the Lib Dems would, it was assumed, require a commitment to a referendum on a new, proportional system of voting.

Four or so years later and few observers doubt that the Labour Party is set to win the next General Election and secure a working majority on its own. Nobody is now talking of electoral pacts and PR is barely on the agenda. The issue now is not: will Labour win? But: how big will the majority be? Almost certainly, it will be a three-figure majority. It could even be a larger majority than the 179 won by Tony Blair in 1997.

What will that mean? It would not necessarily be good for democracy. A sound democracy needs an effective Opposition. The Tories will los many of their ‘stars’ from Parliament and could well descend into civil war.

Some in the Labour Party feel that the majority could be ‘too’ big in the sense that it will enable and, and maybe encourage, backbench Labour MPs to revolt against their own government. I doubt this – at least for some time. The Starmer machine has exercised tight control over the selection of Labour candidates and I don’t think there will be many natural rebels. Also, after 14 years in Opposition, there will be a powerful sense of loyalty and discipline in the Parliamentary Labour Party.

My concern is that a thumping majority will lead the electorate to have excessive expectations of the new Labour Government. Voters will feel that that, with such a huge majority, the Government can do anything. Voters may not fully take on board that, whatever the size of the majority, the circumstances of the British economy will be the same – that is, terrible: tight expenditure plans, crippling debt, virtually no growth, and the continued impact of Brexit. And there will still be the war in Ukraine.

Over the next few months, you can expect a lot of effort by the Labour leadership to manage expectations. But the electorate is crying out for hope. We want something better – much better.

Posted in British current affairs | Comments (0)


Where do people live the longest? Welcome to the notion of blue zones.

March 14th, 2024 by Roger Darlington

I met somebody earlier this week who recommended to me a series of programmes available on Netflix. The series is called “Live To 100: Secrets Of The Blue Zones” and consists of four programmes averaging around 40 minutes each.

Presenter, American Dan Buettner, visits five locations around the world where there is an exceptional number of centenarians, so-called ‘blue zones’: Okinawa, Japan; Barbagia, Sardinia; Lomo Linda, California; Ikaria, Greece; Nicoya, Costa Rica.

In each case, he looks at local factors than could explain the situation in that ‘blue zone’. then he pulls together the commonalities and summarises the emergent key factors.

Nothing here is new, but it’s fascinating to see the factors highlighted in actual communities where demonstrably something special is going on. So, in the and, Buettner promotes four ideas for longevity: move naturally through work and walking; have a positive outlook with a purpose in life; eat wisely with more plant-based foods; build connections through family, friends and local communities.

In the final programme, Buettner looks at where one can actually create ‘blue zones’ even in a country like his own, the United States, where three-quarters of the population is overweight or obese. He outlines a successful trial in Albert Lea, Minnesota. Then he considers the dramatic increases in longevity in Singapore and how the government there is using nudge theory to promote healthier living.

A major take-away from the series is that dramatic changes can be made quite quickly which will increase longevity for individuals and save costs for administrations. But these changes require interventionistrist administrations which take a holistic approach involving the community and providing nudges and incentives rather than mandatory dictates.

At the beginning, the series explains that the programmes are about information and entertainment and are not recommending fully-trialled and full-validated scientific principles, but there is a good deal of sense here that should be discussed and debated by individuals, families, and administrations.

If you can’t access the television series, you might like to read the book.

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A review of the new film “Wicked Little Letters”

March 10th, 2024 by Roger Darlington

The English are noted for their eccentricity and there’s a good deal of it on display in this rather odd offering. It’s as if two films were shot and then, in the cutting rooms, the pair were interwoven. One is a ribald comedy with lots of obscene language, while the other is a social drama in which the leading characters are all tragic figures. 

In essence, it tells a true story located in the coastal of town Littlehampton in the 1920s (although it was actually shot in nearby Arundel) which makes it a rather interesting curiosity, although there is too much dependency on the language of the letters. But the best reason for watching the film is the casting which includes Olivia Coleman, who is rapidly becoming a national treasure, Jessica Buckley, who is one of my favourite British actresses, and Timothy Spall, who is one of our finest character actors. 

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A review of the new science book “White Holes” by Carlo Rovelli

March 10th, 2024 by Roger Darlington

This is the third book that I’ve read written by the famous Italian theoretical physicist Carlo Rovelli. He has a lively and engaging style, unusual for scientists, and this latest work contains a series of references to Dante’s “Inferno”. But the concepts about which he writes are hard to comprehend.

Black holes used to be a theoretical conjecture but now all physicists accept their existence and we have found many, many examples of them in the universe. But white holes? What are they?

According to Rovelli, a white hole is what you would find at the very ‘bottom’ of every black hole and it would manifest itself if one reverses time and the two spacetimes (that for the black and while holes respectively) are linked with a quantum tunnel. I hope you’re keeping up. Rovelli believes that he has shown this process at work theoretically through an imaginative use of Einstein’s equations for his theory of general relativity. He insists that these equations do not change if one reverses time. 

If I’ve understood Rovelli correctly, this analysis derives from a mathematical structure called loop quantum gravity. This is a theory, pioneered by Rovelli, which currently rivals string theory as an attempt to reconcile the contradictions between relativity theory and quantum mechanics with a so-called ‘theory of everything’.

If Rovelli is right and a black hole can ‘bounce’ into becoming a white hole, something similar may have happened on the cosmic scale, so that what we call the Big Bang may have been a Big Bounce in which a previous universe contracted, rebound and created our current universe. Are you still with me?

So will we ever find white holes?

Rovelli admits “I do not even know if white holes actually exist” and tells his readers that “the calculations for this transition are currently in progress” (apparently they are based on a version of loop theory called ‘covariant’ or, more colourfully, ‘spinfoam’). Meanwhile,, at present, very few scientists believe in the existence of white holes and it is considered only a mathematical exercise with no real-world counterpart.

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A review of the new Netflix bio-pic “Rustin”

March 10th, 2024 by Roger Darlington

I confess that, prior to the release of this Netflix movie, I had never heard of American political activist Bayard Rustin (1912-1987) who – as set out in the film – played a key role in the organisation of the 1963 March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom. It was a formidable organisational feat: in less than three months, publicity, transport, policing, food, toilets, loudspeakers, were put together for an event attended by an estimated 250,000 when Martin Luther King made his “I have a dream” speech.

So why have so few people heard of Rustin and why did it take until 2013 for Barack Obama (who, together with Michelle, was a producer on the movie) to award Rustin posthumously the Presidential Medal of Freedom?

The film is clear that Rustin faced so much opposition at the time to his involvement in the march and so little subsequent recognition for his superlative efforts because he was gay, openly and sometimes flamboyantly so.

Some of my American friends, who were very familiar with Rustin’s role in the civil rights movement, have criticised the film for overdoing his homosexuality and underplaying his radical political thinking. The film features a host of real-life characters and some of the disagreements between them that might make it difficult for some viewers wholly to engage with the narrative.

So the movie has its weaknesses, but overall director George C. Wolfe and writers Julian Breece and Dustin Lance Black have done a commendable job in bringing this neglected story to a wide audience in an entertainment format.

As the eponymous activist, Colman Domingo is exceptional in bringing to life a colourful and complex individual. In the support roles, mention should be made of Chris Rock – normally seen as a comedian – in the unsympathetic role of leader of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) who made plain his doubts about Rustin’s suitability for the organising role. 

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Ever heard of the antemurale myth

March 7th, 2024 by Roger Darlington

The Antemurale myth or the Bulwark myth is one of the nationalist myths which implies a certain nation’s mission of being a bulwark against the other religionsnations or ideologies. The word “Antemurale” is derived from Latin ante (before, in time and space) and murale (wall, attributive).

The Antemurale myth is different than other nationalist myths because it does not insist on the uniqueness of a certain group, but on its inclusion into some larger cultural entity which is allegedly superior to other groups which do not belong to it.

The antemurale myth became an archetypal myth of nationhood in Southeastern Europe. Nationalists developed narratives about their nations being Antemurale Christianitatis who protect the West from the invasion of Islam, while the West ungratefully forgets this fact. Almost every nation in southeast Europe has the perception and national myth of being the bulwark of some universal system of values (such as Christianity or Islam).

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A review of the 2006 film “Inside Man”

March 6th, 2024 by Roger Darlington

This starts as a bank robbery, becomes a hostage situation, and then finishes up as neither. Writer Russell Gewirtz attempts to come up with a clever plot but, in the end, it is just too beyond credulity.

Nevertheless, any film directed by Spike Lee is worth seeing – although I found the flash forwards confusing. And the cast list is amazing: headed by Denzel Washington and Clive Owen, we also have Christopher Plummer, Jodie Foster, Willem Dafoe and Chiwetel Ejiofor, but the distinguished support actors are underused.

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A review of the new blockbuster movie “Dune: Part Two”

March 3rd, 2024 by Roger Darlington

We’ve had to wait two years for the second part of French-Canadian co-writer and director Denis Villeneuve’s hugely ambitious screen version of Frank Herbert’s classic science fiction novel of 1965. I took the opportunity to rewatch the first segment a few days before I viewed the second.

As with “Part One”, I caught “Part Two” on the first weekend of its release and ensured that I savoured it in IMAX. This second segment is even longer (166 minutes) and seemed even louder (Hans Zimmer again), but there’s more action and even bits of romance and humour, so I was happy to endure the bottom-numbing experience. 

The cast list is magnificent, again led by Timothée Chalamet whose profile has risen in the intervening two years. Most of the stars from the first movie are back: Rebecca Ferguson, Charlotte Rampling, Zendaya, Josh Brolin, Jason Momoa, Javier Bardem, Dave Bautista and Stellan Skarsgård. But we have even more stars in the firmament: Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken and Léa Seydoux.

The problem is that many of these actors are underused in such a sprawling tale and (with the exception of Javier Bardem) they essentially have one expression which is unrelentingly stern. One longs for some variability or subtlety.

I think that I enjoyed the sequel a bit more than the original because I had a slightly better idea what was going on. But really “Part Two”, like “Part One”, is mainly about visual spectacle – at which it is stunning – rather than narrative or characterisation – at which it is rather leaden.

I mean, really, what is one to make of declarations like: “I am Paul Muad’Dib Atreides, Duke of Arrakis. The Hand of God be my witness, I am the Voice from the Outer World! I will lead you to PARADISE!” And, apparently, it isn’t over: Villeneuve has set us up for more.

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Ever heard of the Phaeton complex?

March 1st, 2024 by Roger Darlington

When I check out the biographical details of people who are successful in various sectors, I’m struck by how often their childhood is characterised by the absence, physically or emotionally, or one or both parents.

Apparently this phenomenon has a name: the Phaeton complex. As Wikipedia puts it:

“The Phaeton complex is a psychological condition described by Maryse Choisy as a “painful combination of thoughts and emotions caused by the absence, loss, coldness, or traumatizing behavior of one or both parents, resulting in frustration and aggression”.

The theory was devised by Lucille Iremonger, who in 1970 studied the 24 British prime ministers who held office from 1809 to 1940, and found that 62% of these men had lost one or both parents by age 15, compared to a national average of 10-15% in those times. Hugh Berrington expanded on the theory in 1974, finding sufferers of the Phaeton complex to be less sociable, flexible or tolerant, instead being ambitious, vain, sensitive, lonely and shy. 

The name derives from the Greek myth of Phaeton, a child of the sun god, who demands to drive his father’s chariot and in doing so, falls to earth and scorches the Sahara Desert.”

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A review of the book “But What Can I Do?” by Alastair Campbell

February 24th, 2024 by Roger Darlington

The last book that I read was “Why We Get The Wrong Politicians” by Isabel Hardman. In my view, that work put too much emphasis and blame on individuals for the current state of British politics, spent far too much time describing the problem and very little time suggesting remedies, and was overly pessimistic about the present condition of public affairs.

By contrast, this book by Alistair Campbell – best-known as Tony Blair’s Director of Communications from 1994-2003 – takes a more systemic approach to “Why Politics Has Gone So Wrong” (to quote the sub-title), spends even more time on addressing “How You Can Help Fix It” (again to quote the sub-title), and overall is much more positive about the prospects for reform and renewal.

Campbell identifies the tipping point when contemporary politics went wrong as the global financial crisis of 2008/09 and summarises the major causes as the three Ps: polarisation, populism, post-truth. His advice is simple but sensible: resist cynicism, develop a campaigning mindset, be a leader, be a team player, be a strategist, learn confidence, acquire persevilience (what he describes as “the marriage of perseverance and resilience”).

There is nothing particularly new or dramatic here, but there is a great deal of really practical advice from an experienced campaigner with lots of anecdotes and extensive contacts. Campbell writes in a lively, accessible style that draws on his considerable experience and is candid about his own strengths and weaknesses. Whereas the tone of Hardman’s book questions why anyone would want to go into politics, Campbell concludes his work with a chapter entitled “How To Get Into Politics”. 

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